SOLAR AMBITION

Trends and Insights

Pandemic Dip and Recovery:
Solar's share held steady or grew modestly through 2020-2021 despite supply disruptions, as total demand dipped. USA and EU saw sharper percentage gains post-2021 (+1-2 pp annually), while China's absolute scale masked its steady climb from 3% to 9%.

China's Unrivaled Scale:
Solar's share doubled from 2022-2024 alone, driven by ~880 TWh output against ~9,400 TWh total—now rivaling hydro (13%). Wind+solar hit 18% combined, but grid constraints cap further penetration without storage upgrades.

USA's Acceleration:
From 3% to 6.8%, solar's rise outpaced total demand growth (up ~3% yearly), but fossil dominance (60%) keeps shares modest. 2024's jump reflects 37 GW added, preventing natural gas expansion.

EU's Steady Climb:
Share doubled since 2020, with solar hitting 10.5% amid 66 GW additions. Wind+solar overtook fossils (30% vs. 27% in H1 2024), pushing emissions down 19% in 2023. Variability remains, but REPowerEU targets 45% renewables by 2030.

UK's Incremental Path:
Modest share growth (from 4.2% to 5.2%) belies reliable output in a cloudy climate, up from flat years pre-2023. Renewables exceeded 50% total in 2024, with solar's 1.6 GW additions aiding diversification.

Globally, solar's share rose from ~3% in 2020 to ~6-7% in 2024 (~2,000 TWh of ~28,000 TWh total), with these regions at ~40% of output but varying penetration due to demand scales (China's dwarfs others). This perspective highlights solar's efficiency in high-demand markets like China vs. balanced mixes in the EU/UK.

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